Polling division simulator · Quebec
The 127 ridings, according to your scenarios
Quebec's 16,756 polling divisions, coloured by the polls, then by your shifts in opinion. Projections, to be read as a snapshot of right now.
Election Day (voting day)
Who will form the government?
published simulationHow it works
The government odds count, out of 10,000 simulations of the election, those in which a party wins at least 64 seats (majority) and those in which it comes first without reaching that number (minority).
The needle shows PQ seats. It moves within the range where half of our simulations land. As each riding is won, its real winner replaces the simulated one in every simulation, and the range narrows. The vertical line marks the majority, 64 seats.
Seats
published scenarioHow it works
We take the latest polls and work out how many seats each party would win if the vote were held today. It's a snapshot of right now; the final result will depend on what moves between now and the vote.
The main figure is the median of 10,000 simulations of the election. Each simulation varies the results, Quebec-wide and in every riding, by the usual gap between polls and the vote. The median is the number of seats a party reaches or exceeds in half of the simulations. The riding-by-riding count below gives each riding to its favourite; it inflates the leading party's total, because all of its close races land on its side.
Riding-by-riding projection (each riding's favourite)
The percentages are shares of the likely electorate, meaning the people who actually vote rather than everyone polled: they differ slightly from published polls, and that is intentional.
The full table of close races (riding by riding, with their polling-division maps) is reserved for subscribers.
How it works
Slide a control to move a party up or down. Everything recalculates instantly: you see what would happen if opinion shifted.
Move a slider: the 127 ridings are recalculated in your browser, and the map follows.
The Map Room · 127 ridings
Welcome to the Map Room
Zoom and pan the map: the scroll wheel zooms under your pointer (pinch and double-click too, like the − / + buttons); drag it with your finger, mouse or middle-click to pan.
Click a riding to open its card: projection, 2022 result and a link to its full page.
Zoom in enough and the 16,756 polling divisions appear, with their numbers: hover over one for its summary; from farther out, it is the riding that is summarized.
The landmarks (the St. Lawrence, roads, cities) stay visible as you zoom so you never lose your bearings: the checkboxes at the bottom of the map turn them on and off.
The results follow your sliders in real time: open the "Sliders" and "Results" panels to adjust the scenario without leaving the map.
Search your neighbourhood: type your postal code into the field at the top of the map: it will go there and drop a marker.
The trend line
The projected seats over the course of our publications: each point is an update to the published scenario.
Close races
published scenarioHow it works
The ridings where two parties are nearly tied. That's where the election will be decided.
Leader and runner-up within 3 points. Each riding leads to its polling-division map.
Leaders and ministers
Ridings
127 ridingsHow it works
Every riding has its own page: who won in 2022, who leads today, and the detail block by block. Look yours up by name.
All ridings, A to Z
published scenarioThe 127 ridings with the leading party and the projected gap over the runner-up. In alphabetical order: click a column header to sort differently.
Ranking by party
published scenarioClick a party: the 127 ridings, from the highest to the lowest projected share.
3- or 4-way races
published scenarioRidings where the gap between the first and last party still in contention is no more than 5 points.
The map
127 ridingsHow it works
Each riding wears the colour of the party in the lead. Zoom in and you get down to the vote a few streets at a time.
Each riding leads to its polling-division map.
This riding's page (its polling-division map, its close races, its chances) is part of the subscription, like the other 126, the 16,756 divisions across Quebec, and the Map Room, the full-screen map that zooms in to your street.
Election simulations
published simulationHow it works
Polls are never exactly right. So we replay the election 10,000 times with the numbers varied, and count how often each party wins. The odds are that count.
We simulate the election 10,000 times. Each card below shows the share of those scenarios in which each outcome occurs.
Seat ranges
the band covers 9 scenarios out of 10Your scenario
Why two seat numbers?
Both numbers are correct: they answer different questions.
The projection applies today's polls to the electoral map, division by division. It is the map's exact number: 127 verdicts added together.
The simulations replay the election 10,000 times, letting the polls vary within their margin of error. The middle of the ranges does not always land on the projection, because seats do not move symmetrically: depending on the map, a party can have more to lose than to gain as voting intentions shift.
In one sentence: the projection says what the polls give; the simulations say what can happen within their margin of error.
See my neighbourhood
free entry pointHow it works
Enter your postal code: you see your riding and the vote around your home, in 2022 and in our projection.
Your postal code opens your riding and its polling divisions directly.
The subscription
$20 / year + tax
- Instant sliders: your scenarios, recalculated in your browser, with no wait
- The 16,756 polling divisions, riding by riding
- The Map Room: the full-screen map; zoom in to your street, save your views, adjust the scenario on the spot
- Election simulations: ours and yours, close races, ranking by party
Your subscription
You are subscribed: full access is active. The interactive map and sliders are coming right here, at the next stage of the redesign.
My account