Three series over time: what the model published
in seats, what polls measured, and what moves
within a riding. The two publication series read
column by column: one column, one published version.
The three series, with a subscription
locked
◫
The frame is here; the curves come with a subscription.
The subscription
$20 / year + tax
Over time — seats publication by publication, voting
intentions with their trend, and the trajectory of each of the
127 ridings
Instant sliders — your scenarios, recalculated in
your browser, with no wait
The 16,756 polling divisions, riding by riding
The Map Room — the full-screen map, down to your street
Each column is a
publication ; the projection holds from one publication to the next.
A column carries exactly what the site displayed
during that time. The dashed red line marks the majority threshold at
64 seats.
Voting intentions
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One point per poll and per party, at its field date.
The line is a 30-day moving average, weighted by proximity in time and
by sample size — it smooths, it does not predict. Polls removed from
the model are drawn as an empty ring and do not enter the trend.
Weighting by polling firm is not published: see
our method.
By riding
Each column is a
publication ; the projection holds from one publication to the next.
The riding shown by default is the closest race in
the latest publication. Below the chart, one chip per publication: who
was leading, and by how much.