Understanding our numbers
Every technical term in the simulator, explained in plain language, with what to remember to read our numbers correctly.
A projection answers "what would today's polls produce, applied to the electoral map?" A prediction would claim to guess the result on election day. Route 127 makes projections: between now and the vote, opinion will shift, and our numbers will shift with it, at every update.
A method that takes its name from the casino, and that's no accident: rather than calculating a single result, the election is replayed 10,000 times, varying each time what the polls might have missed: their margin of error, their regional blind spots, local surprises. Each replay is a scenario. Counting the scenarios gives the probabilities: if the PQ wins a majority in 4,100 scenarios out of 10,000, its chances of a majority are 41%.
The National Assembly has 127 seats: a party has a majority at 64 seats or more: it governs alone. "PQ minority 53%" reads: in 53% of our scenarios, the PQ finishes first but under 64 seats: it would govern without a majority. Since October 3, 2026, these odds are published in whole percentages at the top of the home page; the unrounded probabilities remain reserved for subscribers. When two parties are tied for first in seats, the model gives first place to the party listed first in its order (CAQ, PCQ, PQ, QS, PLQ).
The result in the middle: half the scenarios give more, half give less. "PQ, median 61" means: in half of our 10,000 scenarios, the PQ wins 61 seats or more. Since October 3, 2026, the median is the main seat figure on the home page. It can differ from the map's count, and the parties' medians do not necessarily add up to 127; see the point and the range below.
The coloured band in our charts runs from the 5th percentile (p05) to the 95th percentile (p95): only 5% of scenarios fall below the first, only 5% above the second. In other words: 9 scenarios out of 10 fall within the band. "PQ 39 to 75" reads: it would be surprising, not impossible, for the PQ to fall outside that zone.
The home page shows the median of the simulations first: the number of seats a party reaches or exceeds in half of the 10,000 scenarios. Below it, the map and the riding-by-riding count show the point: each riding assigned to whoever leads there today. Subscribers also see the range: what seats become when uncertainty is allowed to play out. The figures can differ without contradicting each other: a party running second in thirty ridings can be first nowhere (0 seats at the point) while still winning somewhere in nearly every scenario (a much higher median). Conversely, the party that leads most of the close races has a point higher than its median, because the count gives it all of those races at once.
A blend of now and forecast: a projection valid at the moment it is published, under two stated conditions: if the election were held today, and if the polls are accurate. What the campaign will change between now and the vote is deliberately left out.
We don't follow a single poll, but their combination: each poll receives a weight based on the polling firm that ran it, its type, and its age: a recent poll weighs more than an old one, and its weight halves every 5 days since September 23 (10 days until September 14, 7 days until September 22; 3 days planned for the final week of the campaign). A local poll, conducted in a single riding, can follow a separate half-life: it mostly measures the riding's own gap, which changes more slowly than the overall mood. The list of polls used is public (the polls behind this update); the exact coefficients are our house recipe.
How Quebec-wide polls become 127 riding-level results: each polling division's 2022 result is stretched or compressed according to the movement in its region. If the CAQ is at half its 2022 score in a region, every polling division in that region has its CAQ share reduced in the same proportion, and the whole is then rescaled to 100%.
The smallest building block of the election: your polling station, a few hundred voters (414 at the median). The 2026 map counts 16,756 of them. This is the scale our calculations work at: not the average of a riding.
Polls measure the population; but not everyone votes: in 2022, 74% of those 55 and older voted, against 54% of 18-34 year-olds (Élections Québec). Our projections adjust voting intentions toward the likely electorate: the people who actually turn out, a bit older than the surveyed population.
Every riding has a life of its own: a star candidate, a local issue, an active ground campaign. By measuring past elections, we know how much a riding typically deviates from its region's movement, from 4 to 7 points depending on the party. Our simulations shake each riding by this measured amount: that's why the ranges are wide, and that's honest.
The risk that the margins of error in every poll lean the same way at the same time. It has happened: in the last three elections, the final gap favoured the PQ every time, and the CAQ was underestimated by 4 to 5 points in 2018 and 2022. Our simulations include this risk, calibrated on these measured gaps. It's what opens the tails of the ranges: the collapse or surprise scenarios that an overconfident model would declare impossible.
Ridings where the leader's edge is under 3 points: the zone where anything can tip. From 1 to 3 points, it's very close; under 1 point, it's a toss-up.
Our 10,000 scenarios start from a recorded random seed: the seed. With it, the simulation can be replayed identically, scenario for scenario, years later. A number that can't be replayed isn't a defensible number; all of ours are.
The full chain (data, tests, calibration) is described in our method.